Daily Market Review — 11/12/2015
US Economic Statistics Will Be in the Focus of Market Participants
The pair showed totally negative dynamics yesterday. This was caused by statements of the ECB representatives, who pointed out that the bank is ready to introduce additional stimulus measures, if necessary. Data on Industrial Production in France, which were better than the average forecast, also had some influence. Today’s attention of, market participants will be focused on US data, which will be published at 13:30 (GMT). Retail Sales and Producer Price Index are among most important. These reports, along with inflation, which will be published next Tuesday, will be the last important economic data before the Fed meeting on December 15th – 16th.
Resistance: 1.0982, 1.1043, 1.1098
Support: 1.0924, 1.0855, 1.0793
The pair temporarily stopped growing after reaching multi-month high of 69.50 rubles for the US dollar. The ruble has recently been pressured by fall in oil prices, which have a huge impact on the Russian budget. In contrast, expectations of monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve on December 15th – 16th supported the US currency. Today’s dynamics of the USD/RUB may be significantly influenced by the Bank of Russia Interest Rate Decision. This will be a difficult one, as in the case of lowering rates such a move may trigger an inflation hike. On the other hand, if Russian authorities decide to leave its interest rates unchanged, the ruble appreciation will lead to the loss in state budget revenues. Therefore, it is widely expected that the regulator will not change the current monetary policy.
Resistance: 69.4225, 70.0445, 70.6044
Support: 68.0409, 67.3245, 66.5364
The main US stock markets closed yesterday session in the positive territory after three days of falling. It is worth noting that investors are cautious ahead of the Fed meeting on December 15th – 16th. Data on the US labor market also had some influence yesterday. According to the published reports, the number of Initial Jobless Claims rose to 282,000 versus an average forecast of 269,000. Today’s dynamics of trading will be affected by the US data, scheduled for 13:30 (GMT).
Resistance: 4673.79, 4702.11, 4729.23
Support: 4641.06, 4619.03, 4602.48
Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures
Quotes of the “black gold” fell to a new seven-year low of $36.35 per barrel in yesterday’s trading session after the OPEC reported its production reached a maximum volume over the past three years. Meanwhile, representatives of the organization predict a fall in production in non-OPEC countries next year. Recall that OPEC didn’t limit the volume of production at the last meeting in order to protect its market share. This situation raises concerns about oversupply in the market, which is reflected in the fall in prices for this raw material.
Resistance: 37.49, 38.53, 39.78
Support: 36.35, 35.50, 34.00