Report on the labor market

Report on the labor market

Unemployment Grew

There is no big statistics planned for today. Though last Friday there was quite interesting report on the labor market. Unemployment as expected grew by 0.1% and constituted 7.3% by results of October. These numbers are relative and depend on amount of workforce, which US statistic institutions tends to either underestimate or overestimate, and that is why based on such insignificant dynamics it is hard to make any conclusions.

But numbers on the amount of employment can’t help surprising. According to official report, the US employers last month came up with 204K of new jobs.  September index was also revised from initial 148K to 163K. Such an abrupt jump in the data should be treated with a big caution, especially against the background of the fact, that almost half of October American government was not working.

Ambiguity of the last report on the market will most likely make the FRS officials wait for November data in order to make a final decision about QE3 fate. If next month statistics is also positive, then the head of the FRS will have a serious argument in favor of downgrading of stimulating program volume. It is not necessary, that we are going to see a big contraction, but it is important to have a start.

Though there are a lot of other figures, which reflect the process of economic recovery, regardless of all conflicts in the Congress. Industrial PMI on September and October constituted 56.2 and 56.4 respectively and for services 54.4 and 55.4. In other words the FRS can generalize all this data, concluding about the emerging acceleration of economy in 2014. At that one shouldn’t forget that final decision will depend on whether solution on budget is found.

An interesting thing has happened with unemployment. Government officials responded that they had a job, but that week they didn’t work. Otherwise, if most of them determined their status as unemployed, we would have seen a much bigger growth of the figure. Also in October work force reduced by 720K, and overall level of population involvement with employment dropped to 62.8%, which is a minimum figure from 1987.

TECHICAL ANALSYS

 

EURUSD

The Euro didn’t manage to breach major resistance at 1.3455. If below 1.3300, it can fall to 1.3150-1.32. In case it is able to hold above this level, it will have a chance for a rally again up to 1.3390 and 1.3450.

 

USDJPY

 

The pair pulled back once again from major resistance in the area of 99.85. This resistance is crucial for the bullish trend. If resistance is broken, the upper trend could take the currency up to the highs of 104 and higher. Support of the pair is near 98.80 and 98.25.

 

GBPUSD

 

The Pound has dropped to 1.5957 after testing potent resistance near 1.6120. Now the pair seems to attempt to regain its losses. So now there is another lower resistance seen around 1.6060-70. Support is at 1.5950-80.

 

 

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

 

Monday, November 11

00:30         AUD               Home Loans (MoM)

08:00         USD               FOMC Member Fisher Speaks                                  09:00        EUR               Italian Industrial Production (YoY)

09:00         NOK               Norwegian Core Inflation (MoM)

09:00         NOK               Norwegian CPI (MoM)

17:00         EUR               German Buba President Weidmann Speaks                23:50         JPY                Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM)

 

Tuesday, November 12

00:01         GBP               RICS House Price Balance

00:30         AUD               NAB Business Confidence

09:30         GBP               CPI (YoY)

09:30         GBP               CPI (MoM)

09:30         GBP               PPI Input (MoM)

23:00         KRW              South Korean Unemployment Rate

23:30         AUD               Westpac Consumer Sentiment

Wednesday, November 13

 

00:00         USD               FOMC Member Fisher Speaks                                 00:30         AUD               Wage Price Index (QoQ)

09:30         GBP               Average Earnings Index +Bonus

09:30         GBP               Claimant Count Change

09:30         GBP               Unemployment Rate

10:00         EUR               Industrial Production (MoM)

10:30         GBP               BoE Gov Carney Speaks

10:30         GBP               BoE Inflation Report

11:00         ZAR               South African Retail Sales (YoY)

12:10         EUR               German Buba President Weidmann Speaks

18:00        USD               10-Year Note Auction

19:00         USD               Federal Budget Balance

21:45         NZD               Core Retail Sales (QoQ)

21:45         NZD               Retail Sales (QoQ)

23:50         JPY                GDP (QoQ)

Thursday, November 14

 

All Day            Holiday    India – Moharram

00:00         USD               Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

01:00         KRW              South Korean Interest Rate Decision

04:30         JPY                Industrial Production (MoM)

06:30         EUR               French GDP (QoQ)

07:00         EUR               German GDP (YoY)

07:00         EUR               German GDP (QoQ)

07:45         EUR               French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ)

08:15         CHF               Swiss PPI (MoM)

09:00         EUR               ECB Monthly Report

09:30         GBP               Core Retail Sales (MoM)

09:30         GBP               Core Retail Sales (YoY)

09:30         GBP               Retail Sales (YoY)

09:30         GBP               Retail Sales (MoM)

10:00         EUR               GDP (QoQ)

13:30         CAD               Exports

13:30         CAD               Trade Balance

13:30         USD               Continuing Jobless Claims

13:30         USD               Initial Jobless Claims

13:30         USD               Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)

13:30         USD               Trade Balance

13:30         USD               Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)

15:00         USD               FOMC Member Yellen Speaks

Friday, November 15

All Day            Holiday    Brazil – Proclemation of The Republic

10:00         EUR               Core CPI (YoY)

10:00         EUR               CPI (YoY)

10:00         EUR               CPI (MoM)

13:30         CAD               Manufacturing Sales (MoM)

13:30         USD               Import Price Index (MoM)

13:30         USD               NY Empire State Manufacturing Index

14:15         USD               Industrial Production (MoM)