Daily Market Review – 04/06/2015

Daily Market Review – 04/06/2015

In anticipation of Friday’s labor market report

Forex

EUR/USD

During the Asian session the EUR / USD pairing held in a narrow band reception. Breakthrough level at the 12th figure has enabled Euro growth and at the moment the main resistance is located at the 1.1300 area. We will most likely see further movement in a narrow corridor until the Non-farm Payrolls release tomorrow 12-30GMT.

Resistance: 1,1300–1,1320; 1,1450–1,1470; 1,1500.

Support: 1,1240; 1,1000; 1,0915—1,0900; 1,0885; 1,0815—1,0800.

USD/RUB

At the opening of trading the Russian ruble continued its sharp fall against the US dollar. The significant weakening of the ruble is primarily due to geopolitical factors: the military operations in the Donbass region of Ukraine and the EU’s extension of sanctions against Russia for another six months. The strategic goal remains the same at 60.00.

Resistance: 54,20; 55,00; 60,00.

Support: 52,00; 50,00.

Stock Market

S&P500 (Futures SP500 E-mini)

In Asia, the S&P 500 dropped $5 as result of short-term profit-taking players. The trade balance report came out better than expected, but did not help specify a clear direction for trading and the S&P will likely trade mixed in the range 2107-2120 (violet channel on the chart).

Resistance: 2120-2122, 2133 – 2133,5.

Support: 2107; 2100; 2094; 2090; 2080.

 

Commodity Market

Gold (XAU/USD)

Yesterday’s downward movement in gold was due to the positive course of affairs in the Greek issue, which appears likely to be settled in time. The European session also continued the drop in prices for the precious metal. Passage of support in 1180-1179 gives potential for further declines, but a correction to the violet resistance line appears more likely.

Resistance: 1186,00; 1187,00; 1193,39; 1196,00; 1200,00.

Support: 1179,40; 1178,70; 1170,00.

Daily Market Review – 03/06/2015

Daily Market Review – 03/06/2015

EUR/USD

The EUR / USD opened with moderate growth. Bullish sentiment has been persisting since yesterday on the background of gradual settlement of the situation in Greece. The key defining events of today will be the interest rate decision of the ECB and the US trade balance. In case of the resistance passing in the 1.1200 area it will likely rise to the upper boundary of the red channel.

Resistance: 1.1200-1.1210, 1.1300-1.1320,1.1450-1.1470.

Support: 1.1000, 1.0915-1.0900, 1.0885, 1.0815-1.0800.

Recommendations: buy by passing 1.1200.

USD/RUB

Bearish sentiment towards the Russian currency continues to prevail. The resumption of the oil downward movement is currently the main cause of the fall of the ruble. The general trend – growth to the strategic target of 60.00.

Resistance: 53.60, 54.00, 55.00.

Support: 52.00, 51.00, 50.20-50.00.

Recommendations: buy on dips.

S&P 500 Futures

The S&P500 futures, opened the session on a narrow sideways move. At the moment, the market situation is uncertain, with the market waiting for a report on the labor market (Nonfarm Payrolls ) , which will be published this Friday.

Resistance: 2117, 2120-2122, 2133-2133.5.

Support: 2094, 2090, 2080.

Recommendations: no trade.

GOLD

Gold opened in a modest fall during the European session. The nearest support level is located in the area of 1186.00, the passage of which is likely to cause a further decline to the blue line on the chart. A positive solution to the Greek problem is likely to result in a continuation of the downward trend in the medium term.

Resistance: 1200.00, 1204.30-1204.50, 1214.80-1215.00.

Support: 1186.00-1185.90, 1183.50, 1183, 1180.30-1180.00.

Recommendations: sale after passing 1186.

Daily Market Review – 01/06/2015

Daily Market Review – 01/06/2015

The EUR / USD week opened with a small drop, but the pair found support at 1.0925 (the lower pink channel line and moving average support MA100- blue on the graph). You can consider buying with the immediate goal of 1.1000 and then to the upper boundary of the channel rose.

Resistance: 1.1000, 1.1180-1.1200.

Support: 1.0925-1.0900, 1.0865, 1.0815-1.0800.

Recommendations: buy to 1.1000.

Russia markets are off today. The general trend – growth to the strategic target of 60.00.

Resistance: 53.00-53.10, 54.00, 55.00.

Support: 52.00, 51.00, 50.20-50.00.

Recommendations: buy on dips.

The wide market United States Index (S&P500) opened with continued growth. This week will see data on International Trade (April) and Nonfarm Payrolls (April) published which could have decisive impact on future market movements. Consider buying a first target at 2122.00.

Resistance: 2120-2122, 2133-2133.5.

Support: 2102- 2100, 2090, 2080.

Recommendations: buy to 2120-2122.

Oil futures opened a gap down. Friday’s rise was due to the release of data on the reduction of commercial oil stocks in the United States. But the market has fully played the news and is likely to continue the downward trend.

Resistance: 66.00-66.20, 66.80-67.00.

Support: 65.00, 64.50, 64.00-63.80, 62.70-62.50.

Recommendations: sales by passing 65.00.

 

 

 

 

Daily Market Review – 28/05/2015

Uncertainty around Greece keeps investors in trenches

Daily Market Review – 28/05/2015

Asia closed to mixed results; the Japanese Nikkei index added 0.7% and a new 15-year high. This rise was due to weak Japanese yen (JPY), as Japanese companies get a competitive advantage with weak currency, as their economy is export-oriented. The Chinese Shanghai index broke its eight-session winning streak loosing 1%, but it seems nothing like recent gains.

Europe remains unsure about Greece. Talks between Greece and its lenders continued in Brussels on Wednesday, with the Greek government saying it’s looking for an agreement with creditors that would open the way for aid. Both European Commission Vice President and German finance minister said they were surprised by positive tone from Greek officials.

Meanwhile, at the Group of Seven (G7) meeting of finance ministers and central bank chiefs, Greece was the number one topic of discussion, as were talks over the rebuilding of economic growth. Meetings will continue until Friday.

Another unexpected day on Wall Street, with indices closing on their highs after a big down day. No commitment from sellers. Technological index Nasdaq led US markets, posting gains of 1,5%. Buyers remain in the game and appear unwilling to give up. The SPY formed two-days bottom 210.20 and 210.76 versus which you can trade on the long side. A break above 213 will open doors to highs 213.78, breaking off that shouldn’t be a problem.

The EUR/USD pairing formed a reversal candle near support 1.08 after big drop down over the last two weeks. Today should bring some continuation to the upside. There is a big chance that bottom 1.08182 is in place and we will see some type of correction at least to 1.10100-.600.

The USD/RUB attracted our attention after a break of the descending trend-line at 50.60. But confidence will only increase with further proof, which could be a break above 54. If buyers want to keep control there, the price shouldn’t drop below 48.80.

Daily Market Review – 27/05/2015

Daily Market Review – 27/05/2015

Asia indices rewrote their multiyear highs with the Chinese index Shanghai closing green for the seventh session in a row. From the beginning of 2015 the index is up 50% despite fears of economic slowdown. That is why it is important to focus on charts and ignore noise created by media.

Europe opens a bit higher, which is good opportunity for investors to sell if they missed out yesterday. The German index DAX gave back 2% of its support at 11,766 as well as 8/21 moving averages. If sellers want to control situation, they should defend the 11,655-11,700 zone. A Breakout failure of this bull flag (trend line) means that we can drop down back to support at 11,225. Senior members of the Greek government have warned that the country doesn’t have money to pay the IMF back next week. This will be one of the hottest topics at the G7 meeting.

US markets are down 1% despite slightly better than expected macro statistics. This means that we are still in this mode when good news are bad news and vice versa. Perhaps investors are concerned about quicker-than-expected rate rise. SPY broke down 212.50 support, as well as 8/21 EMAs. After a big, ignited, red candle take note of two levels of resistance sellers should defend if they want to keep control of prices: resistance#1 211.30 (21 EMA), than 212.10-.50. Looks like it is heading to 207 support. At the same time we should spot stocks that show relative strength during correction phases.

Other currencies vs US dollar are starting to rebuild after heavy losses during the last few sessions. But still it is not enough to say that we can see a reversal from here. We have to wait for a new set-up and keep risk under control until new opportunities show up. On US Dollar Index charts you can easily see a strong long-term uptrend, but on the short term it looks a bit overbought. So, it becomes difficult for buyers to chase price here, pullback to 95.80 before another move higher will be constructive.

Daily Market Review – 26/05/2015

Greece crisis keeps pressure on markets

Daily Market Review – 26/05/2015

Asia indices continue to hover near highs, almost neutral, with many markets closed due to holiday.

European markets are going to open sharply lower, with Greece struggling to repay a loan to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). If it doesn’t receive financial aid by the end of this week, the Greek government will likely fail to pay wages and pensions.

US markets are slowly grinding higher on low volume. And it looks likely to remain unchanged in near future as we entering in summer mode, a period in which many traders leave their keyboards and go on vacation. SPY is building an upper-level base above previous resistance at 212.50. Resolution of this consolidation at 213.78 could lead us to new highs. Today’s macro statistics Durable Goods orders and Consumer Confidence release could act as a catalyst for change.

Apple (AAPL) is acting very predictably, after a breakup of the range at 127.60. It looks like we may see new highs, but timing is important. After a 5-dollar move it is better to wait for a new set-up rather than blindly jump on this train.

The banking sector is acting well, and will also gain from rising rates. Stocks of investment bank Goldman Sachs (GS) made this 8-dollar move after a break of the range and psychological pivot of 200. The stock is still acting bullishly but requires some pullback, 8 and 21 EMAs are acting like support (204.50, then 201.45). We are then faced with the trend line that has held intact since the beginning of this year.

The EUR/USD currency pair is following a break of the support zone at 1.10600 and forced buyers to cover their long positions. The next important level of support is at 1.08, where the rises started. The pair could find some buyers there and sellers will take a rest after big down move from highs 1.14645, But any signals must be patient before committing.

Daily Market Review 25/05/2015

Daily Market Review 25/05/2015

Markets mostly closed due to holiday

Asia stocks rise on Monday, both Nikkei and Shanghai at multi-years highs. Japan central bank left its monetary policy unchanged.

Europe opens flat on Monday amid low volume, with most major market closed for holiday.

US indices closed flat Friday after Yellen’s speech. Saying a rate hike would be appropriate this year if the economy improves, she didn’t say anything new really. SPY continues to hold near highs and built an upper-level base with support at 212.50. A break above 213.78 could lead the price higher. If not, it may test 21 and 50 EMA at 211.35 and 210 respectively. Markets are closed Monday due to Memorial Day.

Many technology stocks that usually lead US markets have already regained buying momentum. Investors are looking for stocks with discounted from their highs. Facebook (FB) fits this criteria very well. With company stocks were sold off after its quarterly report. Prices dropped from 85.60 to 77 dollars per share. But it now seems to have found buyers with support at 80. A Break up above 81, then above 81.85 will open doors to highs. If prices drop below 79.23, then it will lose active buyers.

Oil keeps its buying momentum, above its 8/21 moving averages. Prices are perking up and look ready to break consolidation at 60.88 with support 57.93. Mid-term goal is 66.

Daily Market Review – 20/05/2015

Dollar Weakness to Return to the Forefront Today!

Forex

USDJPY Range Breakout | Resistance at 122.00

After months of trading inside a range between support at the 119.00 level and resistance at 120.50, USDJPY finally made a breakout to the upside. The pair could be in for more gains from here, possibly until the resistance at the 122.00 major psychological mark.

Stochastic is deep in the overbought region on the 4-hour chart, indicating that a market pullback may be in order. Price could retreat to the broken resistance at the 120.50 minor psychological level, which might now hold as support. On the other hand, a steeper selloff could last until the range support at 119.00.

The path of least resistance is to the upside, as the US central bank is closer to hiking rates compared to the BOJ. However, the release of the FOMC minutes today could prove to be a huge event risk, as this would contain the current economic assessment and outlook of Fed officials.

Recall that Fed Chairperson Yellen assured that the slowdown in the US economy is just transitory, but the lack of support from other FOMC members could indicate that further weakness is on the cards. This might also suggest that the Fed will wait longer before hiking interest rates.

 

USDCHF Double Bottom | Reversal Taking Place

USDCHF made a successful upside break from the neckline of the double bottom formation on its 4-hour time frame. Price is surging past the .9400 major psychological resistance and could be in for around 300 pips in gains, which is roughly the same height as the chart pattern.

With that, USDCHF could be in for a climb until the .9700 major psychological level. Further gains past this point could mean that a longer-term uptrend is underway. On the other hand, a move back below .9400 could show that the breakout is a false one and that a selloff back to the previous lows at .9100 is possible.

The main event risk for this trade is the FOMC minutes set for release in the New York trading session. This should indicate whether or not the Fed might hike interest rates soon, with most market participants counting on a move in September. Downbeat comments could force the dollar to retreat, as this might suggest that the Fed could wait until next year before tightening.

On the other hand, optimistic remarks from Fed officials could allow USDCHF to sustain its climb as it would hint that a rate hike next month is still possible. There are no reports lined up from Switzerland today but recent data has disappointed.

 

Stocks

More Gains for Netflix Shares? | No Retracement in Sight

Netflix shares have been surging in the past few days, as the stock is now trading past the $600/share level. Stock analysts say that NFLX might even reach the $700/share mark soon, as movie streaming services pick up globally.

The short-term moving average is moving higher than the long-term moving average on the long-term charts of the stock, confirming that more gains are likely. In addition, the indicators are treading further apart, reflecting growing strength in the trend.

However, should a market correction take place, Netflix shares could draw support from the nearby areas of interest at $600/share or lower until the longer-term EMA, which has acted as support in the past. Stochastic is almost in the overbought area, hinting that a correction is due.

A larger pullback could last until the $480/share level, which has been a broken resistance mark. This lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement on the latest swing high and low. The stock is in the middle of a technical breakout, which also happens to be supported by stronger company fundamentals.

Daily Market Review – 19/05/2015

Apple Stock Surge Likely After Monday’s Wall Street Rally!

 

Forex

USDCAD Triangle Breakout | Potential Retest of Triangle Resistance

USDCAD had been trading inside a descending triangle chart pattern on the 4-hour time frame before breaking above resistance. Price could head higher by around 350 pips, which is the same height as the chart pattern.

Before that happens though, price could pull back for a potential retest of the triangle resistance at 1.2050 minor psychological level. Stochastic is already moving down from the overbought zone, suggesting that sellers are taking control of price action for now.

Event risks for this trade setup today include the release of building permits and housing starts data from the US. Also lined up today is a testimony by BOC Governor Poloz who might confirm that the Canadian economy isn’t in need of further rate cuts. Hawkish remarks from the central bank head could renew demand for the Loonie and push for a move towards the triangle support at the 1.1950 minor psychological level.

A bigger potential market-mover for this pair is the release of the FOMC minutes in tomorrow’s US trading session. Recall that the Fed sounded more cautious in their recent statement when they downgraded growth forecasts, although they mentioned that the economic slowdown might just be temporary. Downbeat remarks could continue to undermine dollar strength.

 

EURUSD Channel Support | Bounce from 1.1300

EURUSD has been trading inside a rising channel on its 1-hour forex chart, reflecting a short-term uptrend for the pair. Price recently tested the channel resistance at the 1.1450 minor psychological level and may be due for a bounce off support at the 1.1300 major psychological level.

Stochastic is already indicating oversold conditions, which suggests that buyers could take control of price action and push for another move towards the channel resistance. Event risks for this trade setup include the release of the German ZEW economic sentiment index, the euro zone final CPI, and the region’s ZEW economic sentiment figure.

Weaker than expected data from the euro zone could lead to losses for the shared currency, which is losing support from the optimism surrounding the Greek debt situation. On the other hand, strong results could keep the shared currency afloat, especially if stochastic starts moving up from the oversold area also.

As for the US economy, the release of the building permits and housing starts figures today could also add volatility to the pair. Weak data could lead to downbeat expectaations ahead of the release of the FOMC minutes tomorrow, which could shed more light on why the Fed lowered their growth forecasts.

 

Stocks

AAPL Stock Uptrend | Resistance at $135/Share

AAPL shares seemed to enjoy another boost in demand, as risk appetite improved across the financial markets yesterday. Price bounced off the short-term range support around $125/share and may be headed for the top around $135/share.

The short-term EMA is above the long-term EMA on the daily time frame, adding confirmation that buying momentum could be sustained. If upward pressure is strong enough, an upside break past the previous highs at $135/share could even be possible. Stochastic is still moving up, indicating that buyers are still in control.

Event risks for this stock setup include the release of the FOMC minutes during the middle of the week. Recall that the Fed downgraded their growth forecasts but assured that the slowdown is just temporary. Any biases in the minutes of their meeting could have a significant impact on US equities.

A larger market correction for Apple shares could lead to a test of support at the long-term EMA and rising trend line around the $120-122/share level. A break below this region, though unlikely, could spark a longer-term selloff for Apple shares.

Daily Market Review – 18/05/2015

EURUSD and GBPUSD Return to the Spotlight Today!

Forex

EURUSD Rising Channel Resistance | Short-Term Market Correction

EURUSD is establishing an uptrend on its short-term time frames but may be due for a quick correction, as the pair is testing the top of the rising channel on its 1-hour chart. If the resistance around 1.1400 is able to keep gains in check, a pullback to the channel support at 1.1300 to 1.1350 is likely.

For now, the short-term EMA is treading above the longer-term EMA, confirming that the uptrend is likely to carry on. Stochastic is already indicating overbought conditions though, also confirming that a quick selloff might be possible

If buying momentum is sustained, an upside break past the channel resistance and a move towards the 1.1500 major psychological level might take place. On the other hand, a sudden return in bearish pressure could lead to a break of the channel support and a prolonged selloff for the pair.
There are no major events lined up from both the euro zone and the US economy today, although the path of least resistance could be to the upside since the latest set of data from the US fell short of expectations. Later on this week, the FOMC minutes could prove to be a huge event risk, followed by the PMI releases from Germany and France.

 

Potential Pullback on GBPUSD | Support at 1.5400

GBPUSD has been on a stellar rally, following the UK elections and the BOE Inflation Report. Although the central bank expressed some degree of disappointment with the current economic performance, they did show confidence in their outlook and confirmed that their next move is still likely to be a rate hike.

Traders also seemed to ignore weaker than expected jobs data from the UK, indicating that many are hopeful that the BOE can maintain their hawkish stance. UK retail sales are up for release this week and a strong rebound is eyed, which would confirm BOE Governor Carney’s claim that the downturn in price levels would translate to stronger spending.

A rising trend line can be drawn to connect the recent lows of price action on the 4-hour forex chart of GBPUSD. This coincides with the longer-term EMA, which has also held as dynamic support in the past. A bounce off this area, which is around the 1.5400 major psychological level, could lead to a test of the previous highs around 1.5700.

On the other hand, a surge in dollar demand could lead to a break of the trend line and a potential downtrend for GBPUSD. The upcoming release of the FOMC minutes could be a catalyst for a strong move in either direction this week.

 

Stocks

Correction on Walmart Shares | Resistance Around $80/Share

On its daily time frame, Walmart shares seem to be bottoming out from the latest drop and may be due for a pullback. Price could retreat to the long-term descending trend line, which is near the long-term EMA and the $80/share level before resuming its drop.

Earnings reports from the big retailers in the US are up for release this week and strong data could allow for a larger pop higher for WMT. On the other hand, bleak data could lead to the downtrend to resume right away, without a large market correction to the potential resistance zones.

Stochastic is moving up for now, indicating that buying pressure is present and that sellers are taking it easy. If the oscillator reaches the overbought zone and turns lower, WMT could follow in its footsteps and head right back down as well.

Support at the $78/share level is still holding and a break below this floor would confirm that a longer-term selloff is taking place. Next lows could be located around the $75-76/share levels. On the other hand, a strong rally past the $80/share mark might indicate a possible uptrend later on.