EURUSD Slide Awaits the Forex Market this Tuesday
EURUSD Potential Reversal | Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern
EURUSD appears to be stalling around the 1.1150 minor psychological support and might be in for a short-term reversal. An inverse head and shoulders pattern seems to be forming on the 1-hour time frame, with price still completing the right shoulder.
The neckline of the potential reversal pattern is located at the 1.1200 major psychological level, as an upside break from the resistance might mean around 75-100 pips in gains for the pair. On the other hand, if the resistance holds, price could resume its drop to the 1.1150 support zone.
A break below 1.1150 is also possible, especially since the US is set to release its NFP reading later this week. Speculations of another strong result could mean more gains for the dollar yet strong data from the euro zone appears to be supporting the shared currency at the moment
Stochastic is moving up from the oversold area, indicating that profit-taking on the recent selloff is taking place and that bears are taking a break. Once the oscillator reaches the overbought zone and turns lower, sellers could jump into action and push for another leg lower, possibly until the next support at 1.1000 or 1.0000 later on.
USDCAD Triangle Resistance | Potential Upside Break of 1.2600
The descending triangle on USDCAD’s 1-hour forex chart is still holding, with price gearing up to make another test of the resistance near the 1.2600 major psychological level. If this keeps gains in check, the pair could move back down for another test of support at 1.2400.
Event risks for this setup today include the release of Canada’s GDP report, which might indicate weaker monthly growth. If so, speculations of another BOC rate cut for their upcoming statement this week could grow and lead to an upside triangle break. A move past the 1.2600 resistance could mean a rally up to the previous highs at 1.2900 or a potential 500-pip rally, which is the same height as the chart pattern.
Later this week, the US will release its NFP report and possibly show another strong gain in employment. In that case, buying momentum for dollar pairs could grow and spark a break past the 1.2600 triangle resistance. A weak reading, on the other hand, could remind traders that the Fed is in no rush to hike rates in June and lead to dollar weakness.
Shorting at the 1.2600 resistance level and aiming for 1.2400 could work for a short-term trade while waiting for a breakout in either direction might make more sense for a longer-term position trade.
GDX Shares Retreat to 50 SMA | Bounce from $20/Shar
GDX shares recently broke above the neckline of a double bottom pattern on its daily chart, indicating a potential uptrend for this share. Price found resistance at the 200 simple moving average then retreated to the 50 SMA, which has acted as a dynamic inflection point.
For now, the shorter-term 50 SMA is moving below the 200 SMA, which means that a downtrend is in play. MACD is also moving lower, confirming the increased selling pressure. RSI is on middle ground but is on its way down, suggesting that the price could hover around the support level for a while or perhaps dip a little lower.
If the latter happens, price could find support at the $20/share level, which is close to the broken neckline resistance and might keep losses in check. A deeper pullback could last until the previous lows at $17.50/share. On the other hand, a bounce off the current levels might mean another test of the 200 SMA.
Risk sentiment could be a key driver of price action among US equities this week, especially with the NFP report coming up. Strong data could confirm the ongoing recovery in the US economy, which could lead to more demand for US equities.