Crude Oil, Gold Head Higher Tuesday Morning

Crude Oil, Gold Head Higher Tuesday Morning

Currencies

USD

The dollar is very unstable this morning, partially due to the upcoming holidays. In fact, the greenback is actually trading in a mixed fashion in the latest round of trading. The AUD/USD forex binary option is trading lower as of now by 0.18 percent at the rate of 0.8118 U.S. cents. The thing is that the dollar has lost ground vs. bitcoin and a basket of other currencies. The reality is that the greenback is still overvalued, so do not be surprised if it loses ground as the trading day passes by. There will be important housing data released from the news wires from America later on, so get ready to open your dollar positions to make maximum returns.

EUR

The good news for the euro is that it has been able to gain ground versus the greenback and the yen. Traders just feel that the losses for the European single currency in previous trading sessions have been overdone. Therefore, do not be surprised if the euro continues to gain ground as the trading day drags on. Look to open daily Call options in the EUR/USD forex binary option in order to make maximum returns.

JPY

The yen is one of the weakest currencies this morning. The USD/JPY forex pair has surged this Tuesday by 0.07 percent to 120.14 yen. Traders are of the view that it is the time for them to go short on haven currencies due to there being many trading opportunities. Moreover, there was a global stock market rally, prompting traders to sell the yen and Swiss franc, and go long on counter currencies. Expect more of the same in the next few hours of trading.

Stocks/Indices

The S&P 500 managed to rise to a record high on Monday, the fourth day of gains for the S&P 500. In addition, there were very big gains for leading American stocks, led by banking and tech shares. There has been a surge in risk appetite from the middle of the previous trading week. It seems that the improving economic data from America has lent a helping hand to American and global stocks.

The economic data this Tuesday afternoon that will be published from America will be key in driving equities in the latter hours of trading.

The Dow Jones binary option climbed 0.87 percent to the 17,959.44 level. The S&P 500 surged 0.38 percent to the rate of 2,078.54.
Commodities

Crude Oil

The good news is that the crude oil binary option is trading higher in the latest round of trading. This was after it ended Monday’s session much lower. Traders are of the view that the losses for crude have been exaggerated. The gains this morning come in spite of the Saudis stating $20 crude in the not so distant future may be a possibility. Crude oil futures are trading higher this Tuesday morning by 20 cents, and more gains are on the cards.

Gold

The gold binary option has edged higher, as trader feel that it is time for them to take advantage of the thin trading now. More gains are set for gold in 2015 after the commodity went much weaker in 2014. However, you should still try and benefit from the rising prices to make big returns before Christmas.

Wild Card

S&P 500

If you want to continue making high returns from the leading indexes later this Tuesday, then going long on the S&P 500 is where the action is at. Please take note that bullish American data will be pivotal in boosting the S&P 500 later on.

 

Dollar Climbs Eighth Time in Nine Weeks

Dollar Climbs Eighth Time in Nine Weeks

Currencies

USD

The gauge for the U.S. dollar rose for the eighth time in nine weeks, indicting just how much strength there is in the American currency at the moment. It was able to make inroads into the yen, Swiss franc, euro, pound and a number of its other widely traded peers. The fact of the matter is that the U.S. economy is growing at a very fast pace these days. However, the main factor which is really lending the greenback a helping hand is the forecast that interest rates will be raised in 2015. The dollar is headed for gains this year against 30 out of 31 peers, showing what confidence there is in the USD.

EUR

The euro did make some big losses versus the greenback during the trading week, but managed to make inroads into the yen and a number of its other peers. The fact is that the euro is oversold at the moment, especially versus the greenback, which may prompt traders to go bullish on the EUR in the coming week of trading. Gains are likely to be made versus the cable, Aussie and dollar, so get ready for this.

CAD

One of the most volatile currencies at the moment is the Canadian dollar. Traders have felt that it is the time for them to go short on the loonie after the gains which stocks in the nation were able to make at the end of the trading week. In fact, the Canadian currency is heading for its weakest level in five years, as traders put their money into alternative assets. Be very cautious while trading the loonie in the upcoming trading we.

Stocks/Indices

For those of you who have been trading U.S. stocks in recent weeks will have noticed the weakness that has been in the markets. The good news is that stocks in America and other countries were able to make a very important comeback during the trading week. This came as investors realized that global stocks were oversold, and they can buy their favorite stocks at basement prices.

There were not just gains in U.S. stocks, as we saw much strength when speaking of Canadian, Chinese, U.K. and European stocks. It seems that investors feel that going long at the moment is where the action is at.

There may be thinner trading volume due to the holidays in the week ahead, but look to go long on U.S. stocks again.
Commodities

Crude Oil

The crude oil binary option was able to gain during the week that just passed. It rose by about 0.8 percent, making the gains during Friday’s trading session. Investors took advantage of the low prices, and went long on all fronts. The fact is that the commodity is oversold at the moment, and those of you who realize this will be able to make big money by going long anytime soon.

Gold

The gold binary option saw some big losses during the week that just passed. This was largely due to the very bullish dollar. With the U.S. set to increase rates as early as April 2015, it is no wonder that traders have taken it upon themselves to sell gold. Look to open weekly Put options once Monday’s trading gets going in order to make maximum profits.

Wild Card

Dow Jones

For those of you who are looking to make big money from the markets in the week ahead may want to go long on the Dow. There is still more room for more advances, so look to go long once you get a chance.

 

Dollar Surges on All Fronts; Traders Await Amazon Stock to Make a Comeback

Dollar Surges on All Fronts; Traders Await Amazon Stock to Make a Comeback

USDJPY

USDJPY Falling Trend Line | Pullback to 117.50

USDJPY has been moving below a falling trend line connecting its recent highs since the start of the month. Price has recently made a strong move down to the 115.50 area and rebounded for a quick correction.

The Fibonacci retracement tool applied on the latest swing high and low indicates that the 61.8% level lines up with the falling trend line around the 117.50 minor psychological resistance. This is also close to the 100 simple moving average, which has acted as a dynamic inflection point in the past.

A higher pullback could last until the 200 simple moving average, which is around the area of interest at the 119.00 major psychological mark. For now, the shorter-term moving average is below the longer-term moving average, confirming the downtrend.

Much could hinge on the FOMC statement today though, as any hawkish remarks could drive the dollar higher against its forex counterparts. If Yellen decides to drop the “considerable time” wording in her statement, the dollar could be in for extended gains until early next year. On the other hand, dovish remarks could keep the dollar’s rallies subdued, especially if risk-taking picks up towards the end of the year.

GBPJPY

GBPJPY Area of Interest | Support Near 38.2% Fibonacci Level

After its recent tumble, GBPJPY looks ready to resume its climb back to its previous highs. The pair found support around the 182.00 major psychological level and made a strong bounce in yesterday’s trading sessions.

Bear in mind though that inflation reports from the UK showed weaker than expected results, as the headline CPI fell from 1.3% to 1.0% while the core CPI dropped from 1.5% to 1.2%, confirming that the BOE can’t afford to hike interest rates just yet.

For today, the jobs report could provide volatility for this pair, as the economy is expected to have added 19.8K jobs during November. This should be enough to bring the jobless rate down from 6.0% to 5.9% for the month, although the focus might be on the average earnings figure. Strong wage growth could keep the pound supported, as this absorption of slack could lead to stronger inflationary pressures down the line

A deeper pullback could still be possible, which might take price down to the 180.00 major psychological support zone. A break below the lowest Fib at the 176.00 levels could mean a longer-term downtrend for this pair, as risk aversion takes hold of forex price action.

Stocks

AMZN Stock Below $300/Share Level | Nearing Key Support Zone

Amazon stock has been in a continuous selloff these days, with price breaking below the $300/share psychological support level. This could be a sign that further losses are in the cards, as risk aversion has been weighing on US equities these days.

Part of the reason why higher-yielders are falling is the rise in geopolitical tension, spurred by the hostage-taking situation in Australia and the school tragedy in Pakistan. This has led to risk-off flows across financial markets, including US equities.

Amazon stock price action could also hinge on the FOMC statement today, as the Fed is expected to shift to a more hawkish stance. This could include hints of tightening early next year, which would mean more expensive business investment and tighter credit conditions. This could be received negatively by US equities, which might then spark deeper selloffs.

On the other hand, if the Fed sticks to its cautious bias, equities could stage a considerable recovery in expectation of a prolonged period of low interest rates. This would be beneficial for business expansion, as companies increase operations to meet the ongoing surge in demand.

 

 

Dollar Slump in Action; Nike Surge Hopeful

Dollar Slump in Action; Nike Surge Hopeful

USDCHF 

USDCHF Support at .9600 | Uptrend Retracement Play

USDCHF has recently paused from its climb to retreat to an area of interest at the .9600 major psychological level. This lines up with a broken resistance zone and the rising trend line visible on its 1-hour forex chart.

If price bounces off this support region, the climb could resume and take USDCHF up to its previous highs around the .9800 major psychological resistance. Stronger buying momentum might even lead to an upside break all the way up to the next ceiling at the .9900 major psychological level.

Event risks for this trade include the FOMC statement on Wednesday, which might include hawkish remarks from the Fed. After all, the US economy has shown consistent improvements, particularly in the labor and consumer sectors. However, inflationary pressures have remained weak and this might be enough reason for the Fed to stick to its cautious stance.

Downbeat remarks from the Fed, combined with weaker than expected inflation readings and forecasts, could be a recipe for disaster for the dollar. This might lead to a downside break of support at .9600 for USDCHF and a move down to the next floor around the .9500 levels.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 150-Pip Range | Support at 1.5600

GBPUSD has been moving sideways recently, finding support at the 1.5600 major psychological level and resistance at the 1.5750 minor psychological mark and creating a 150-pip range since mid-November. Price has just bounced off support t the 1.5600 handle and may be due for a test of resistance.

Stochastic is moving up, indicating that there may be a bit of buying pressure left to trigger a test of the 1.5750 resistance. However, if pound bears gain momentum, they could push the price below the bottom of the range and the previous spike lower to 1.5550.

Event risks for this trade include the UK CPI release today, as weaker price pressures would remind traders that the BOE is not looking to hike rates anytime soon. The headline CPI is slated to fall from 1.3% to 1.2% while the core CPI could hold steady at 1.5%, far below the central bank’s 2% inflation target.

Stronger than expected data, on the other hand, could revive talks of a rate hike from the BOE and push pound pairs higher. This might lead to an upside break of resistance, which would mean further gains for the pair. The rally might last by as much as 150 pips, which is the same size as the rectangle chart pattern.

Stocks

Retracement on Nike Stocks | Pullback to $94/Share

Nike shares have retreated from its recent climb after topping out close to $100/share. This could be indicative of a long-term market correction before the stock resumes its rally back to the previous highs and beyond.

US equities have recently returned some of their recent wins as risk aversion took hold of the markets in the wake of falling commodity prices and rising geopolitical tension. Apart from that, the prospect of Fed tightening early next year could make business investment more expensive, making it costly for companies to expand operations.

With that, price action on Nike shares could hinge upon the FOMC statement this week, wherein the Fed is expected to drop more hints on when they might hike interest rates. Hawkish remarks could lead to more weakness for equities while cautious comments could revive the rallies.

Nike shares could pull back to the $94/share level, which is in line with an area of interest, before resuming their climb. A deeper pullback could last until the $90/share level, which lines up with a broken resistance zone.

 

 

AUD and AAPL on Focus today

AUD and AAPL on Focus today

GBPJPY

GBPJPY Area of Interest | Pullback to 187.50

GBPJPY has recently pulled up from its slide, but it appears that the short-term trend is set to resume. The pair found resistance at the 187.50 minor psychological resistance, which lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level on the latest swing high and low.

This also lines up with an area of interest that has acted as support or resistance in the past. If the selloff resumes at this point, GBPJPY could test its former lows around the 185.00 major psychological level. Shorting at market with a tight stop around 186.00 could yield a high return on risk.

On the other hand, a rally past the 187.50 mark might mean more gains for the pair, especially if it makes a strong close above 188.00. Further rallies could take GBPJPY up to this year’s highs at the 189.50 area.

The path of least resistance is to the upside, based on monetary policy differences between the BOJ and BOE. While the BOE has pushed back tightening expectations, its next move is still likely to be a rate hike. On the other hand, the BOJ is more inclined to ease again as data from Japan has continued to disappoint.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD Bottoming Out? | Support at.8250

AUDUSD is in a long-term downtrend but it seems that the selloff is already exhausted. For one, the pair is testing support at the bottom of the falling channel visible on its 4-hour forex chart. Apart from that, a double bottom pattern appears to be forming as well.

Yesterday, jobs data released from Australia came in stronger than expected, although the jobless rate ticked higher and downgrades to previous data were seen. In the US, retail sales figures beat expectations, thanks to the surge in spending over the Thanksgiving holidays and the positive employment figures in November.

This could mean further downside for AUDUSD, as the US economy is doing far better. However, today’s set of data from China could determine whether the trend will persist or not, as strong figures might lead to an Aussie bounce.

Price is finding a floor at the .8250 minor psychological level for now and may form a double bottom if it tests resistance at .8350. A close past this neckline could mean at least a hundred more pips in gains for AUDUSD, as the pattern is around the same size. If .8350 holds as resistance, AUDUSD could form new bottoms

Stocks

Retracement on AAPL Shares | Approaching 50 SMA Support

AAPL shares might be due to resume its climb soon, as the pair is closing in a key support zone. This is close to the 50 simple moving average, which is still moving above the long-term 200 SMA and indicating a continuation of the ongoing uptrend.

Price could bounce off the $108/share level, which also lines up with an area of interest. A deeper correction could last until the $105/share area, which is a psychological support zone.

The pickup in spending and shopping for Apple gadgets in the upcoming December holidays would mean more revenue for the tech company and potentially stronger stock gains. Traders could be waiting to join this uptrend at a better price, with buy orders piled up around the $105-108/share region.

If the uptrend resumes, AAPL shares could move back up to test its previous highs around the $120/share level. After all, the Santa Claus rally could lift risk appetite and US equities in the coming weeks onto early January next year. Of course much also hinges on the outcome of the last FOMC statement for the year, with hawkish remarks likely to spur stock gains.

 

Yen Weakness Dominates the Headlines; Microsoft Volatility Lies Ahead

Yen Weakness Dominates the Headlines; Microsoft Volatility Lies Ahead

USDJPY

USDJPY Short-Term Downtrend | Pullback to 119.00

USDJPY has been selling off continuously, opening the case for a short-term downtrend until the end of the week. Price just dipped to the 118.00 level and may be due for a pullback to the broken support around the 119.00 handle.

If this area holds as resistance, USDJPY could explore new lows around the 117.00 levels or lower. Data from the US economy today could determine the pair’s direction, as the retail sales figures are likely to show strong consumer spending gains for November. The headline figure is projected to print a 0.4% rise while the core figure could indicate a 0.1% uptick.

A disappointment, however, might mean more losses for this pair. This would remind traders that the US economy isn’t as strong as initially expected and that the Fed might stay in their cautious route in terms of considering interest rate hikes.

Earlier today, Japan printed a weaker than expected core machinery orders report and a 0.2% decline in its tertiary industry activity. This suggests that the Japanese economy is far weaker compared to the US, although the yen is enjoying the run in risk aversion recently even with expectations of further BOJ easing.

GBPJPY

GBPJPY Resistance Turned Support | Testing 185.00 Handle

GBPJPY has sold off in the past few days, creating a large market correction visible on its 4-hour time frame. On this chart, it can be seen that GBPJPY is stalling at an area of interest around 185.00, which acted as resistance in the past.

A bounce off this support zone could mean a continuation of the longer-term rally and possibly a retest of the previous highs around 189.00. Further gains past this point could lead to a move until the 190.00 major psychological level and beyond.

On the other hand, a break below support could lead to a shaper drop to the next support area at 183.00. A move below this area might confirm the reversal on the longer-term uptrend and lead to more losses for the pair. Risk aversion stemming from the Greek political tension could keep this pair heading south.

Data from Japan remains mostly weak and the BOJ is biased towards further easing, which suggests that the path of least resistance is to the upside. Although the BOE shared that rate hike expectations must be pushed back, the fact remains that their next monetary policy move is still likely to be a rate hike

Stocks

Microsoft Shares Retracement | Area of Interest at $47/Share

Microsoft shares seem to be finding a floor at the $47/share level in the meantime, as price took a break from its recent selloff. Risk aversion was mostly responsible for the price decline, as markets focused on the Greek political situation in the past few days.

Should risk appetite return and lift US equities, Microsoft shares could resume their climb to the previous highs at $50/share and perhaps go for new ones. After all, the Santa Claus rally for the year is set to start in a few weeks and traders might be eager to put their long positions in.

The current support area is also close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level on the latest swing high and low on the 4-hour chart, adding to its strength as a support zone. This also lines up with a previous resistance level. A break below this area could mean a deeper pullback to $45/share, which is also an area of interest.

A break below the Fib levels would indicate a reversal for MSFT shares though, especially if risk aversion stays in the markets much longer. The US retail sales could have an impact on stock price action in today’s New York trading session, as strong data could lift equities.

 

 

Dollar Crashes versus Yen; Trade Apple Stock Today

Dollar Crashes versus Yen; Trade Apple Stock Today 

USD/JPy 

USDJPY Buyers to Return? | Rising Trend Line Holding

USDJPY might be ready to resume its climb, even after the pair suffered a sharp selloff in recent trading. Price was unable to recover so far this week, even as the Japanese economy reported a steeper contraction while the US printed a stronger than expected jobs reading for November.

Profit-taking took a hit on this pair, along with the pickup in risk aversion due to the political tension in Greece. This weighed in favor of the lower-yielding Japanese yen as traders took the flight to safety and dumped higher-yielding assets. US equities also suffered a sharp selloff, which led to dollar weakness.

For today, the upcoming US retail sales could change all this if the actual results come in stronger than expected. Analysts are pricing in strong gains since the Thanksgiving holiday sales might’ve resulted to stronger spending, along with the strong surge in hiring for November.

With that, USDJPY could resume its climb back to the 120.00 major psychological mark or higher until the 122.00 area near its previous highs. On the other hand, bleak data could worsen the selloff and lead to a test of the recent spike lower at 188.00.

USDCAD

USDCAD Countertrend Setup | Channel Resistance at 1.1500

USDCAD might be forming a potential countertrend setup on its 4-hour chart, as the pair is testing the top of the rising channel. Shorting at the 1.1500 major psychological resistance at the top of the channel and aiming for the bottom at the 1.1250 minor psychological support could yield a good return-on-risk with a tight stop.

Stochastic is moving up though, indicating that buyers might push for an upside break of channel resistance. A strong candle close above the 1.1500 resistance level might confirm that the trend has strengthened and that further gains are in the cards.

Much could depend on the outcome of the US retail sales reports due in the New York trading session. Thanks to the pickup in spending during the Thanksgiving holidays, analysts are expecting higher retail sales figures for November. Apart from that, the jobs market was also in better condition then, as the NFP reading for the same month showed an upside surprise.

With that, the path of least resistance is to the upside, although many have already priced in their expectations for the event. This opens up the chance for a downside surprise, which might potentially lead to a stronger reaction from this USDCAD pair.

Stocks

Apple Shares Ready to Test Support | Pullback to 50 SMA

Apple shares still seem to be in the middle of a market correction, as price recently pulled back after nearing $120/share. This led to a move towards the 50 simple moving average, which has held as a dynamic support area in the past.

Another test of this floor might take place right around the $107.50/share level, which is also the 50% Fibonacci retracement level based on the swing low and high on the daily time frame. A deeper pullback might last until the $100/share level, which happens to be an area of interest.

Risk aversion is weighing on U.S. equities and other high-yielding assets for the time being, as traders are currently wary about the ongoing political tension in Greece. A vote in three rounds will be held to keep the current government in place, otherwise the parliament will be dissolved and spark more uncertainty for the country.

If the latter takes place, Apple shares might be in for more losses and take some time before resuming its climb. MACD is reflecting a pickup in selling pressure, which suggests that traders might not be too keen to buy on the dips just yet. RSI is also heading south, although it is almost in the oversold area and might reflect a return in buying pressure soon.

 

 

 

 

 

USDCAD Surge to Watch Out For; Facebook Comeback on Tap

USDCAD Surge to Watch Out For; Facebook Comeback on Tap

USDCAD

USDCAD 1.1500 Resistance | Ascending Trend Channel

USDCAD’s recent rally might be cut short as the pair is inching closer to testing the top of the ascending trend channel on its 4-hour chart. This lines up with the 1.1500 major psychological level, which could also hold as resistance.

If so, price could move back to the bottom of the ascending channel around the 1.1250 minor psychological level. A weak selloff might last only until the middle of the channel around 1.1350. Meanwhile, a strong move lower could mean a break of the bottom of the channel and further losses for USDCAD.

The path of least resistance is still to the upside though so Loonie bears might opt to wait for a test of the 1.1250-1.1300 area to go long. After all, jobs data from the US has been very strong while Canada’s employment change figure had a downside surprise. Yesterday, housing starts and building approvals from Canada were also weaker than expected.

An upside break of the channel resistance is also possible, especially if oil prices keep dropping. Bear in mind that the Canadian dollar is positively correlated to crude oil prices since the country is a major producer and exporter of oil.

GBPCAD

GBPCAD Pullback Play | Resistance at 1.8000

GBPCAD recently broke below support at the 1.7900-1.8000 major psychological level and is making a retracement at the moment. The broken support zone lines up with the Fibonacci levels drawn on the latest swing high and low on the 4-hour time frame.

The event risks for this trade setup today include the release of UK manufacturing production data, which might indicate a small 0.2% increase. This would be lower than the previous month’s 0.4% uptick and reflective of a slowdown in the industry. However, a stronger than expected reading might still provide support for the pound.

A weaker than expected report, on the other hand, could mean losses for this pair since the BOE is already worried about the negative impact of external economic threats on the UK. This could mean a downturn in demand from the euro zone and weaker export activity, which then weigh on manufacturing and industrial production.

A move lower could take price down to the previous lows at 1.7600 while further gains past 1.8000 could invalidate the retracement signal. Bear in mind that Canada just released a bunch of weak reports, from its downbeat jobs data to lower than expected gains in housing starts and building approvals, which are keeping the lid on Loonie rallies.

Facebook

Facebook Stock Recovery | Bounce Off $75.50/Share Support

After moving sideways for several days, Facebook stock is showing signs of a recovery. The price bounced off support at the $75.50/share level and is indicating an increase in buying momentum, based on MACD and RSI indicators on the daily time frame.

This could be a sign that the share price is in for more rallies moving forward. After all, US equities are doing well since the latest set of economic data have shown strong improvements and support Fed tightening. However, any indication that the US central bank is ready to hike rates might make borrowing costs for businesses more expensive.

A move higher could lead to a test of the previous highs around $78/share. Further gains past this mark could take Facebook stocks to the $80/share major psychological level. On the other hand, a return in selling pressure might lead to a move back to the $75/share are of interest

For now, the 50 simple moving average on the daily time frame is holding as support, just as it did so in the past. It is also currently moving above the 200 SMA, indicating that the uptrend is likely to carry on.

 

Twitter Shares on Focus Today; Buy the USDJPY

Twitter Shares on Focus Today; Buy the USDJPY

USDJPY

USDJPY Profit-Taking at 120.00 | Further Buying Momentum

USDJPY is closing in on the 120.00 major psychological handle, which might be a key area for profit-taking orders. This could lead to a sharp near-term selloff for the pair, as traders ease off their long dollar holdings ahead of the Friday non-farm payrolls release.

he report is slated to show a 232K pickup in hiring, stronger compared to the previous 214K gain and enough to keep the jobless rate steady at 5.8%. A stronger than expected report might lead to USDJPY gains past the 120.00 mark onto 121.00 while a weak figure could force the pair to return more of its recent wins.

A selloff could last until the 117.75 area of interest, which is around the top of the descending triangle resistance seen last month. A deeper pullback could take price down to the 115.00 mark, although this appears to be a less likely scenario

Bear in mind that the US Fed remains on track to tighten policy next year, as the Beige Book indicated that strong improvements were seen among most Fed districts. Meanwhile, the BOJ is still open to further easing measures even after expanding its monetary base a few weeks back.

GBPNZD

GBPNZD Retracement Levels | Resistance at 2.0300

GBPNZD made a higher pullback as seen on its 4-hour time frame, although the longer-term downtrend seems to be intact. Price brushed past the 2.0000 major psychological resistance and 38.2% Fib and might be on its way to test the 2.0300 mark around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

Stochastic has already reached the overbought area, indicating that a return in selling pressure is likely to take place. If so, the 2.0300 resistance might hold as a ceiling and push price back down to 2.0000 or lower. A pickup in bearish pressure could lead to a move back to the previous lows around the 1.9700 major psychological support.

Data from the UK was stronger than expected yesterday, as the services PMI showed a higher climb and a faster pace of expansion in the services industry, which contributes a huge chunk to overall GDP. In New Zealand, the latest dairy auction indicated another drop in prices, which might weigh on economic performance.

Event risks for this setup today include the BOE interest rate statement, which might contain more dovish remarks from the UK central bank and put the pound back in selloff mode. Recall that the latest testimonies from Carney showed that rate hike expectations are likely to be pushed back because of weak inflation.

Stocks

Twitter Shares at Range Support | Potential Price Bounce to $44.00/share

Twitter shares are moving sideways as it found support around the $39/share level and resistance at the $44/share mark. At the moment, price is testing range support and may be due for a short-term bounce.

Much hinges on market sentiment, as this could be swayed by the outcome of the non-farm payrolls release on Friday. Early indicators suggested a stronger than expected result since the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI labor components marked improvements.

A strong NFP reading could boost US equities, which include Twitter shares. This might even lead to a move past the $44/share resistance and for the stock to close the huge gap down from the $48/share level last month.

On the other hand, a weak NFP report could lead to a risk-off environment and a selloff for US equities, as this might indicate that the economy is still a long way from completely recovering and enjoying tighter monetary policy.  In this case, Twitter shares could break below $39/share and see more losses until the $35/share leve

 

 

USDJPY Bulls in Control; Open Calls Today

03.12.2014

USDJPY Bulls in Control; Open Calls Today

USDJPY

USDJPY Return of Bullish Momentum | Resistance at 120.00

USDJPY resumed its strong ascent, after nearly a month of consolidation in a descending triangle pattern. Price broke to the top of the formation then pulled back for a quick retest before surging past the previous highs around the 119.00 mark.

With that, traders might now be setting their sights on the 120.00 major psychological handle as the next target for the USDJPY pair. There have been no major reports released from the United States and Japan earlier in the week, although the former has more lined up towards the end.

Today, the ADP non-farm employment change report is due and a slight slowdown in hiring is expected. A higher than expected increase in jobs could lead to strong dollar gains though since traders might start pricing in upbeat expectations for the NFP release on Friday. On the other hand, a bleak ADP reading might force traders to book profits off their dollar longs in anticipation of a downbeat NFP report and weaker Fed rate hike projections.

As for Japan, there are no major reports due until the end of the week, leaving the yen functioning mostly as a counter currency. The path of least resistance is still to the upside for this pair though, as the BOJ remains a dovish central bank in light of the recent recession in Japan and expectations of weaker inflationary pressures.

EURNZD

EURNZD Symmetrical Triangle | Potential Breakout Scenarios

EURNZD can’t seem to pick a clear direction for now, as price consolidated tightly inside a symmentrical triangle pattern on its 4-hour time frame. The pair might find resistance at the top of the triangle around the 1.5950 minor psychological mark and support at the bottom around 1.5900.

A break to the upside could mean around 300 pips in gains, which is the same height as the chart pattern. This could push EURNZD to the 1.6250 minor psychological resistance, which has held as a ceiling so far this year. Similarly, a downside break could mean around 300 pips in losses, which could lead EURNZD down to the 1.5600 major psychological support zone.

Fundamentals suggest a downside bias for this forex pair, as the ECB is mulling further easing measures in order to stoke inflation in the euro zone. The New Zealand dollar is being weighed down by another decline in dairy prices, which could lead to cut in milk payouts from Fonterra to farmers and suppliers.

The upcoming ECB interest rate decision could be the main catalyst for a breakout in either direction, as the announcement of actual easing could lead to more losses for the shared currency.

Stocks

Downside Momentum in GOOG Shares | Resistance Near 50 SMA

GOOG shares seem to be resuming their downtrend, as price is showing an increase in selling pressure in a move back to the previous lows. Shares came close to testing the dynamic resistance at the 50 simple moving average but resumed their drop before even making contact.

A selloff could lead to a drop until the $520/share level or all the way down to $500/share. RSI is reflecting a pickup in selling momentum, as the oscillator is heading south towards the oversold area. Once the indicator crosses out of the oversold zone though, a quick bounce is still possible.

MACD is on middle ground, barely offering any directional clues at the moment. Price is testing a short-term area of interest around the $530/share level anyway, which could lead to a bounce and a test of the 50 SMA resistance.

A break past the resistance zones could mean a return in buying momentum and more gains for GOOG shares. Risk aversion spurred by geopolitical tension and falling commodity prices is weighing on US equities in the meantime, dragging GOOG shares lower i