Daily Market Review — 25/06/2015
Greece Is Heading Towards Default. Again.
Yesterday’s meeting of the Eurogroup with Greek PM Alexis Tsipras did not provide any positive results. The representative of the German government said that Greece is now as close to default as it ever was.
The single’s currency trading on the news was divergent, but within a narrow range.
US GDP showed a decline of 0.2% in the first quarter, just as it was expected by analysts.
It appears that the most likely scenario will be a moderate downward movement to the support level in the area of 1.1150.
Resistance: 1.1270; 1.1410; 1.1435–1.1450; 1.1466; 1.1500; 1.1750.
Support: 1.1150–1.1130; 1.1050; 1.0915–1.0900; 1.0885; 1.0815–1.0800.
Today is the peak of tax payments for Russian exporting companies, which will support the Russian currency. But the overall trend remains the same and we expect to see the market reaches 60 rubles for US dollar before the end of this month.
Resistance: 54.50; 55.05; 57.05; 57.40–57.50; 60.00.
Support: 53.50; 52.75–52.50; 52.00; 50.00.
S&P500 (Futures SP500 E-mini)
Yesterday’s release of positive data on US GDP for the first quarter (economic slowdown improved from –0.7% to –0.2%) caused a plunge in the US stock market amid a general strengthening of the US dollar.
Investors perceive any positive economic data as the extra argument for the Fed to tighten monetary policy, which in turn causes a general increase in the US dollar across the world.
The market is in a corrective movement from yesterday’s fall. After S&P works it out, it is likely the downtrend will follow, down to 2100.00 and below.
Resistance: 2109–2110; 2122; 2133–2133.50.
Support: 2100–2098.50; 2097; 2070; 2068.50–2068; 2050; 2033; 2000.
The US Crude Oil Inventories report was released yesterday, and it showed that inventories decreased by 4.9 million barrels against the forecast of 1.8 barrels. This decrease in inventories was already priced in the growth of the market on Tuesday. The overall US crude oil inventories are still at record levels in recent years and the oil market is still oversupplied. All these factors have caused a fall in prices, and we expect further downward trend in the medium term.
Resistance: 65.00; 65.40; 66.00–66.35; 66.80–67.00; 70.00.
Support: 62.10–62.00; 61.50–61.40; 61.00–60.90; 60.00.