Daily Market Review — 17/09/2015
Today’s FOMC Decision on Interest Rates Is the Highlight of the Month
Yesterday was marked by a downward trend for the pair. The cause of this is the mixed statistics on the US economy, which was published yesterday. According to the data, the Consumer Price Index fell last month by 0.1% against the average forecast 0.0%. The CPI excluding food and energy has met the expectations at 0.1%. In annual terms, CPI was 0.2%, which also coincided with forecasts of experts, while CPI excluding food and energy in annual terms rose to 1.8% against expectations of 1.9%. As you can see, one of the targets of the Federal Reserve fell short of the forecast before an important meeting, though turned out to be at the level of the previous period. Today, market participants’ attention will be drawn to the announcement of the Swiss National Bank its decision on the base rate, which will be held at 07:30 (GMT). Do not forget that today is the most important day for the US currency and, in general, for all financial markets. Today at 18:00 (GMT) the FOMC will announce the results of its two-day meeting, which began yesterday. This will be followed by a press conference of the regulator, which is scheduled for 18:30 (GMT). The decision will direct the future dynamics of the pair.
Resistance: 0.9762, 0.9795, 0.9821
Support: 0.9670, 0.9577, 0.9511
During yesterday’s trading session the pair showed mixed trends, which caused by mixed statistics from the US. Today the pair began trading with a negative trend. The reason for this lies in the dynamics of negative statistics, published today by the New Zealand economy. According to the data, the country’s GDP has changed in the second quarter by 0.4% against analysts’ expectations of 0.5%. In annual terms, the change was 2.4% against expectations at the level of 2.5%. The value for the previous period has been changed upwards from 2.6% to 2.7%. This does not meet the expectations of analysts, so the statistics put pressure on the New Zealand currency. Today, the dynamics of the pair will be highly influenced by the news from the US, regardless of the Fed decision.
Resistance: 0.6389, 0.6422, 0.6488
Support: 0.6292, 0.6243, 0.6180
During yesterday’s trading session, the major European stock markets recovered a little bit. This was caused by the positive statistics on the British economy. According to released data, the Average Earnings excluding bonuses rose more than forecast. ILO Unemployment Rate also showed a better result than most analysts had expected. Some pressure on stock indexes had the final assessment of the CPI in the euro area, showing that in the past month, prices have not changed, while the annualized rate was 0.1% against the average forecast of 0.2%. Despite this, the market got some positive news from mixed statistics on the US economy. According to the data, the CPI excluding food and energy has met of forecast. This indicator is one of the main for the US Federal Reserve. Such situation can stop the Fed from raising rates at its meeting, which will be a positive signal for stock markets.
Resistance: 10338.58, 10516.41, 10654.15
Support: 10048.85, 9896.62, 9773.38
Yesterday, the price of the precious metal rose significantly, due to the general decline of the US currency. This triggered some investors to return to buying gold. Nevertheless, the players expect today’s decision by the US Federal Reserve on monetary policy. Many market participants shifted their expectations of the first rate hike to a later date. Yesterday’s inflation report on the US economy showed that inflation is at historic lows. CPI against August of last year rose by only 0.2%. The same indicator excluding food and energy showed an increase of 1.8%, lower than the forecast at the level of 1.9%. Today investors will not open new large positions until the announcement of the results of the FOMC meeting.
Resistance: 1123.93, 1126.42, 1130.03
Support: 1114.77, 1110.19, 1102.32