Daily Market Review — 15/02/2016
ECB President Draghi Speech will be the main event today
The pair showed a negative trend at the Friday’s session, which was due to the mixed statistics on the Eurozone economy. Thus, the German GDP for the fourth quarter of last year came in at 0.3%, which coincided with the forecast. In the annual terms the index was 2.1%, slightly below analysts’ forecasts of 2.3%. As for the Eurozone economy, the GDP for the fourth quarter came in at 0.3% and 1.5% qoq and yoy, respectively. Nevertheless, industrial production in the Eurozone in December declined more than forecasts of experts. This provided some pressure on the single European currency. The current dynamics of pair will depend mainly on the publication of data on the trade balance of the Eurozone, which is scheduled for 10:00 (GMT). Also, the ECB President Mario Draghi‘s Speech 14:00 (GMT) will be very important.
Resistance: 0.7785, 0.7850, 0.7896
Support: 0.7701, 0.7663, 0.7615
The demand for the Japanese currency as a safe asset fell somewhat, since there was observed some recovery in the stock markets. In addition, on commodity exchanges there was a positive trend, which provided some support to the Australian currency. Meanwhile, on Sunday, there were presented data on the Japanese GDP preliminary estimate for the fourth quarter. As most experts predicted, the index showed negative trend, but the actual data recorded larger decline than that expected by most analysts. Thus, in the qoq index was 0.4% against expectations of decline of 0.3%. In annual terms, GDP fell by 1.4% against a decline in its forecast of 1.2%. As for the Australian economy, the rate new motor vehicle sales recorded a growth of more than that, most experts expected. Further dynamics of pair will depend on the mood of investors on the stock and commodity markets.
Resistance: 81.93, 83.44, 85.02
Support: 79.97, 79.07, 77.60
During Friday’s trading day, major US stock indices gained almost 2% on the price of oil recovery and growth stocks of the banking sector. In addition, retail sales in the US in January rose more than it was forecasted, indicating some acceleration of economic growth after a fall at the end of last year. Meanwhile, Michigan Consumer Sentiment index was more pessimistic. Thus, the index was 90.7 against the average forecast of experts at the level of 92. Today, the US stock markets trading will be with lower volumes, as US investors are resting on due to birthday of George Washington.
Resistance: 1884.58, 1903.58, 1921.87
Support: 1865.01, 1850.73 1821.54
Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures
Quotations of “black gold” raised during Friday’s session on rumors that OPEC member states are prepared to reduce oil production in order to balance world prices. In addition, the UAE oil minister said that the low prices are forcing some manufacturers to reduce the volume, which in the future may lead to the global market to stabilize prices. Also, it is worth noting that some investors preferred to lock in profits before the long weekend after a sharp fall, as today’s official public holiday in the United States. Meanwhile, according to the service company Baker Hughes the number of drill rig in US fell by 2 units and that provided some support to the oil market. Nevertheless, the prospects for the oil market remain negative, as global supply still exceeds demand.
Resistance: 29.62, 30.59, 31.48
Support: 27.83, 26.92, 26.02