Daily Market Review — 10/09/2015
The Main Events of the Day Are BoE Interest Rate Decision and Asset Purchase Target
During yesterday’s trading session the pair was under pressure. The reason for this was the publication of economic statistics on production in the UK. According to the published results, industrial production fell by 0.4% in July against the average forecast which was at + 0.1% in monthly terms. In annual terms, it resulted being 0.85% against analysts’ expectations of 1.4%. As to manufacturing, in monthly terms it fell by 0.8% versus expectations at the level of +0.2%. The annualized rate was –0.5% against the forecast of analysts at + 0.5%. Also yesterday was presented data on the trade balance with non-EU countries. It fell by 3.37B versus expectations of experts at the level of –1.6B. Today, market participants’ attention will be drawn to the announcement of the Bank of England decision on key interest rate and the asset purchase program, which is scheduled for 11:00 (GMT). Immediately afterwards, the BoE statement will be announced.
Resistance: 1.5445, 1.5508, 1.5562
Support: 1.5334, 1.5262, 1.5163
The Russian currency was trading with a negative character the whole day yesterday, because of the Russian ruble’s strong tie to oil quotations. Yesterday’s trading day the “black gold” was in a downward trend, which in turn put pressure on the Russian currency. Prospects for the ruble remain negative, caused by the ongoing problems in the commodities markets. Also, the ruble is being pressured by the uncertainty in the Chinese economy. This week Chinese government announced it will continue to support the national economy through a series of structural reforms. Recall, the People’s Republic of China is a major trading partner of the Russian Federation in commodity trading.
Resistance: 68.5543, 69.3249, 70.8109
Support: 66.8344, 65.6510, 64.2807
Despite the positive start of trading, the major US stock markets closed yesterday’s trading in the red zone. The fact that the Chinese government will continue to support the national economy have added optimism in the stock markets around the world. Some influence also has the uncertainty surrounding the timing of the first rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. The increase in rates in the US will be the end of the ease monetary policy, which in recent years has supported the stock markets around the world. Small influence also had data on the number of vacancies on the US labor market published yesterday. According to statistics, it was 5.75 million against the average analyst forecast at 5.28 million. Moreover, the pressure on stocks has been influenced by the falling oil prices. It is worth adding that yesterday’s decline was caused by the closing of the long positions monetize profits after a three-day growth.
Resistance: 1973.01, 1992.09, 2028.96
Support: 1908.17, 1867.48, 1830.61
Light Sweet Crude Oil
At yesterday’s session quotes of the “black gold” fell significantly again, and overcome the psychological mark of $45 per barrel. Previously, oil prices were supported by reports from China about a certain stabilization of the situation in the national economy. According to the majority of investors, the global market continues to experience significant imbalance in supply and demand. Yesterday was became known that Indonesia is going to join the OPEC in December this year, which it left seven years ago. In this regard, OPEC will have to increase the production quota for oil production for 2016. This situation will put pressure on the oil quotations.
Resistance: 46.20, 47.19, 48.39
Support: 43.39, 41.79, 40.44