Daily Market Review — 02/09/2015
Factory Orders & ADP Employment Report Are Main Events of the Day
During the first half of yesterday’s trading session the pair showed a positive trend, which was caused by the publication of positive data on the labor market in Germany. According to the data, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.4%. The number of unemployed fell to –7 against the forecast of level 2. The index of manufacturing activity in Germany exceeded forecasts and showed the level of 53.3 against the average forecast of 53,2. These data once again confirmed the status of Germany as the main driver of the economy of the Eurozone. But the manufacturing activity index of the Eurozone turned out to be 52.3, slightly below the forecast of 52.4. The unemployment rate in euro zone fell unexpectedly to 10.9% against an average forecast of 11.1%. Today, the focus of market participants will be on data on the producer price index in the euro area, which is scheduled for 09:00 (GMT). But the main news of today’s trading session will be the ADP employment report at 12:15 (GMT). Also today, the report on factory orders in the US will be published. It is worth noting that the market is cautious as players expect a government report on the NFP this Friday.
Resistance: 1.1332, 1.1396, 1.1560
Support: 1.1233, 1.1177, 1.1079
After the growth of the Russian currency against the US dollar, which began at the beginning of last week, the ruble demonstrated negative dynamics during yesterday’s trading. Recall that the value of the Russian ruble is very closely linked with quotations on commodity markets and especially oil prices. As we saw last week strong recovery in quotations of “black gold” has pushed the ruble to rise. It is worth noting that this dynamic is likely to have a speculative nature and lacked a fundamental reason. Yesterday the oil market experienced a corrective pullback, which put pressure on the Russian currency. Prospects for the ruble remain negative in the light of the continued slowdown of the Chinese economy, which is an important strategic trade partner of the Russian Federation.
Resistance: 66.3736, 67.6244, 69.4630
Support: 64.2807, 63.3006, 62.2477
Yesterday, the major European stock exchanges were under pressure due to negative data on Chinese manufacturing index, which showed levels below the forecast. This suggests that the world’s second largest economy is experiencing a slowdown. Some influence also had the data on unemployment in Germany as well as the index of manufacturing activity in Germany and the Eurozone, which showed the different pace of economic recovery. The index of manufacturing activity in the UK was worse than forecast, which put significant downward pressure on European stocks. Investors are also concerned about the uncertainty regarding the timing of the first rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. Players waiting for Friday, when the NFP report will be presented, which in some way may clarify the situation with the change of monetary policy in the United States.
Resistance: 6105.84, 6250.80, 6400.49
Support: 6005.00, 5935.66, 5756.04
Light Sweet Crude Oil
During yesterday’s session quotes of the “black gold” fell significantly after three days of growth, during which the price of crude oil increased by 27%. The negative trend was caused by concerns about the Chinese economy after the publication of the production index in China, which was worse than analysts’ forecast. Many investors don’t pay much attention to the information published in the OPEC Bulletin, which stated that the organization decided to discuss with other oil exporters the stabilization of prices in the world markets. Yesterday was also published statistics on crude oil inventories by API, which showed that inventories rose last week by 7.6 million barrels. This in turn put pressure on the oil quotations.
Resistance: 45.80, 47.10, 48.79
Support: 43.56, 41.74, 39.87