Daily Market Review — 01/07/2015
The market Is Focused on Nonfarm Payrolls
The market remains focused on Greece. But investor reaction to possible news is likely to be limited, and market players will focus on US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which will be released tomorrow at 12:30 GMT. Analysts expect growth in new jobs in non-agricultural sectors of the economy up to 232,000. If actual data meets expectations, it will be perceived as a signal for an early beginning of rate hikes by the FOMC rate hikes, and as a result the US dollar will go up across the world.
Resistance: 1.1275–1.1280; 1.1410; 1.1435–1.1450; 1.1466; 1.1500; 1.1750.
Support: 1.1050; 1.0955; 1.0915–1.0900; 1.0885; 1.0815–1.0800.
Russian ruble is traditionally pressured by oil prices. The fall of GDP is also speeding-up in Russia, which is an extremely negative factor for the Russian currency. One should also take into account the likely continued lowering of the interest rate by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The targets remain the same level of 60.00 rubles per US dollar.
Resistance: 55.65–55.75; 57.05; 57.40–57.50; 60.00.
Support: 55.05–55.00; 53.50; 52.75–52.50; 52.00; 50.00.
S&P500 (Futures SP500 E-mini)
The S&P is still pressured by the situation in Greece, as well as by expectations of positive data in NFP tomorrow, which will cause the strengthening of the US dollar against all other assets.
From a technical point of view, the chart illustrates a possible correction of the decline from June 24 with target levels around 2070.00–2080.00. The resumption of downtrend with a mid-term target at 2000.00 appears quite possible.
Resistance: 2070; 2080; 2109–2110; 2122; 2133–2133.50.
Support: 2050–2047; 2033; 2000.
The main pressure point on oil prices is talks on Iran’s nuclear program, which are close to a successful ending; even though US officials said yesterday the deadline for negotiations is extended. If sanctions are lifted, it will significantly increase the supply of oil on the market, which will inevitably lead to decline in prices.
Resistance: 63.80; 65.00; 65.40; 66.00–66.35; 66.80–67.00; 70.00.
Support: 61.40–61.30; 61.00–60.90; 60.00.