AUD and AAPL on Focus today
GBPJPY Area of Interest | Pullback to 187.50
GBPJPY has recently pulled up from its slide, but it appears that the short-term trend is set to resume. The pair found resistance at the 187.50 minor psychological resistance, which lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level on the latest swing high and low.
This also lines up with an area of interest that has acted as support or resistance in the past. If the selloff resumes at this point, GBPJPY could test its former lows around the 185.00 major psychological level. Shorting at market with a tight stop around 186.00 could yield a high return on risk.
On the other hand, a rally past the 187.50 mark might mean more gains for the pair, especially if it makes a strong close above 188.00. Further rallies could take GBPJPY up to this year’s highs at the 189.50 area.
The path of least resistance is to the upside, based on monetary policy differences between the BOJ and BOE. While the BOE has pushed back tightening expectations, its next move is still likely to be a rate hike. On the other hand, the BOJ is more inclined to ease again as data from Japan has continued to disappoint.
AUDUSD Bottoming Out? | Support at.8250
AUDUSD is in a long-term downtrend but it seems that the selloff is already exhausted. For one, the pair is testing support at the bottom of the falling channel visible on its 4-hour forex chart. Apart from that, a double bottom pattern appears to be forming as well.
Yesterday, jobs data released from Australia came in stronger than expected, although the jobless rate ticked higher and downgrades to previous data were seen. In the US, retail sales figures beat expectations, thanks to the surge in spending over the Thanksgiving holidays and the positive employment figures in November.
This could mean further downside for AUDUSD, as the US economy is doing far better. However, today’s set of data from China could determine whether the trend will persist or not, as strong figures might lead to an Aussie bounce.
Price is finding a floor at the .8250 minor psychological level for now and may form a double bottom if it tests resistance at .8350. A close past this neckline could mean at least a hundred more pips in gains for AUDUSD, as the pattern is around the same size. If .8350 holds as resistance, AUDUSD could form new bottoms
Retracement on AAPL Shares | Approaching 50 SMA Support
AAPL shares might be due to resume its climb soon, as the pair is closing in a key support zone. This is close to the 50 simple moving average, which is still moving above the long-term 200 SMA and indicating a continuation of the ongoing uptrend.
Price could bounce off the $108/share level, which also lines up with an area of interest. A deeper correction could last until the $105/share area, which is a psychological support zone.
The pickup in spending and shopping for Apple gadgets in the upcoming December holidays would mean more revenue for the tech company and potentially stronger stock gains. Traders could be waiting to join this uptrend at a better price, with buy orders piled up around the $105-108/share region.
If the uptrend resumes, AAPL shares could move back up to test its previous highs around the $120/share level. After all, the Santa Claus rally could lift risk appetite and US equities in the coming weeks onto early January next year. Of course much also hinges on the outcome of the last FOMC statement for the year, with hawkish remarks likely to spur stock gains.