Last week American currency has grown. In spite of the fact that in general the US statistics came out negative, the Dollar has appreciated against its main rivals. The FRS was the main driver of the strong growth of the Dollar. So it’s monetary and credit policy remains unaltered until the next meeting on December 17-18.
European currency got under strike more than others. It finished the week at 1.3486. The end of October has brought negative data from Europe. Unemployment level has increased up to 12.2% in October; the figure for September has been revised to a higher one. At the same day inflation figure came out. It declined in October to the level 0.7%. Last time the market saw such low figures were in 2009, what gave investors the reason to start talking about deflation threat in Europe. If inflation is going to decline more, the ECB will have to downgrade interest rate, what will put pressure on the Euro rate.
As for the Pound the news background was moderately negative. There was no crucial macro statistics issued. It is worth mentioning a sharp dip of retail Sales. The Pound ended trading week a bit above the level of 1.5900.
Reserved comments of CB of Japan didn’t have any serious influence on the rate of the national currency. The Yen has been losing its positions against the US currency. And preserving the QE3 program of the Fed has only strengthened the rate of USDJPY.
New trading week ahead of us seems to be very exciting. There will be preliminary data on the GDP for the third quarter coming out, and on Friday there will be NFP. Analysts expect downgrade of both indices. Any deviations from forecasts might trigger strong reaction of the market.
For the Euro ECB meeting on Thursday will be the main event of the week. Recently we’ve received a rather weak data on inflation and unemployment in the region. Press conference of the head of the ECB Mario Draghi about solving these issues will be in focus of the market.
The trend for the Euro is clearly bearish. It is important to mention, the the slope of decline recently has become more steep. That suggests exacerbation of the trend. Support is seen around 1.3440-1.3460. Resistance is at 1.3710 and 1.3831.
For the Yen a lot will depend of the important US statistics, as none anticipated from Japan. Strong resistance is at 99.00. If the height is taken, the way to the area above 100 will be open for the pair.
The Pound is currently in decline. Support is seen at 1.5900. Short term resistance is at 1.6010. Higher on the upside there is another resistance line at 1.6250. It will be next goal in case the lower one is broken.
Monday, November 4
All Day Holiday Japan – Holiday
All Day Holiday Singapore – Deepavali
All Day Holiday India – Diwali-Balipratipada
00:30 AUD House Price Index (QoQ)
00:30 AUD Retail Sales (MoM)
08:13 EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI
08:43 EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI
08:48 EUR French Manufacturing PMI
08:53 EUR German Manufacturing PMI
08:58 EUR Manufacturing PMI
09:30 GBP Construction PMI
21:00 USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
Tuesday, November 5
All Day Holiday Indonesia – Islamic New Year (Hijri)
03:30 AUD Interest Rate Decision
03:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
05:30 JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
07:45 JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
08:00 EUR Spanish Unemployment Change
08:15 CHF Swiss CPI (MoM)
08:15 CHF Swiss CPI (YoY)
09:28 GBP Services PMI
15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
21:45 NZD Employment Change (QoQ)
21:45 NZD Labor Cost Index (QoQ)
21:45 NZD Unemployment Rate
23:50 JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Wednesday, November 6
00:30 AUD Trade Balance
09:30 GBP Industrial Production (MoM)
09:30 GBP Industrial Production (YoY)
09:30 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM)
09:30 GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY)
10:00 EUR Retail Sales (MoM)
11:00 EUR German Factory Orders (MoM)
13:30 CAD Building Permits (MoM)
15:00 CAD Ivey PMI
15:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate
Thursday, November 7
00:30 AUD Employment Change
00:30 AUD Unemployment Rate
06:45 CHF SECO Consumer Climate
09:50 EUR Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction
11:00 BRL Brazilian CPI (YoY)
11:00 EUR German Industrial Production (MoM)
12:00 GBP BoE QE Total
12:00 GBP Interest Rate Decision
12:45 EUR Interest Rate Decision
13:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
13:30 USD GDP (QoQ)
13:30 USD GDP Price Index (QoQ)
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
14:00 MXN Mexican CPI (YoY)
18:50 USD FOMC Member Stein Speaks
19:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Friday, November 8
00:30 AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
02:00 CNY Chinese Exports (YoY)
02:00 CNY Chinese Trade Balance
06:45 CHF Unemployment Rate n.s.a.
06:45 CHF Unemployment Rate s.a.
08:15 CHF Retail Sales (YoY)
09:30 GBP Trade Balance
13:15 CAD Housing Starts
13:30 CAD Employment Change
13:30 CAD Unemployment Rate
13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)
13:30 USD Average Weekly Hours
13:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM)
13:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls
13:30 USD Personal Spending (MoM)
13:30 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls
13:30 USD Unemployment Rate
14:55 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment
20:30 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks