American currency has grown, European currency got under strike more than others.

Last week American currency has grown. In spite of the fact that in general the US statistics came out negative, the Dollar has appreciated against its main rivals. The FRS was the main driver of the strong growth of the Dollar. So it’s monetary and credit policy remains unaltered until the next meeting on December 17-18.

European currency got under strike more than others. It finished the week at 1.3486. The end of October has brought negative data from Europe. Unemployment level has increased up to 12.2% in October; the figure for September has been revised to a higher one. At the same day inflation figure came out. It declined in October to the level 0.7%. Last time the market saw such low figures were in 2009, what gave investors the reason to start talking about deflation threat in Europe. If inflation is going to decline more, the ECB will have to downgrade interest rate, what will put pressure on the Euro rate.

As for the Pound the news background was moderately negative. There was no crucial macro statistics issued. It is worth mentioning a sharp dip of retail Sales. The Pound ended trading week a bit above the level of 1.5900.

Reserved comments of CB of Japan didn’t have any serious influence on the rate of the national currency. The Yen has been losing its positions against the US currency. And preserving the QE3 program of the Fed has only strengthened the rate of USDJPY.

New trading week ahead of us seems to be very exciting. There will be preliminary data on the GDP for the third quarter coming out, and on Friday there will be NFP. Analysts expect downgrade of both indices. Any deviations from forecasts might trigger strong reaction of the market.

For the Euro ECB meeting on Thursday will be the main event of the week. Recently we’ve received a rather weak data on inflation and unemployment in the region. Press conference of the head of the ECB Mario Draghi about solving these issues will be in focus of the market.





The trend for the Euro is clearly bearish. It is important to mention, the the slope of decline recently has become more steep. That suggests exacerbation of the trend. Support is seen around 1.3440-1.3460. Resistance is at 1.3710 and 1.3831.



For the Yen a lot will depend of the important US statistics, as none anticipated from Japan.  Strong resistance is at 99.00. If the height is taken, the way to the area above 100 will be open for the pair.



The Pound is currently in decline. Support is seen at 1.5900. Short term resistance is at 1.6010. Higher on the upside there is another resistance line at 1.6250. It will be next goal in case the lower one is broken.





Monday, November 4

All Day            Holiday    Japan – Holiday

All Day            Holiday    Singapore – Deepavali

All Day            Holiday    India – Diwali-Balipratipada

00:30         AUD               House Price Index (QoQ)

00:30         AUD               Retail Sales (MoM)

08:13         EUR               Spanish Manufacturing PMI

08:43         EUR               Italian Manufacturing PMI

08:48         EUR               French Manufacturing PMI

08:53         EUR               German Manufacturing PMI

08:58         EUR               Manufacturing PMI

09:30         GBP               Construction PMI

21:00         USD               FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks



Tuesday, November 5

All Day            Holiday    Indonesia – Islamic New Year (Hijri)

03:30         AUD               Interest Rate Decision

03:30         AUD               RBA Rate Statement

05:30         JPY                BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks

07:45         JPY                BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks

08:00         EUR               Spanish Unemployment Change

08:15         CHF               Swiss CPI (MoM)

08:15         CHF               Swiss CPI (YoY)

09:28         GBP               Services PMI

15:00         USD               ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

21:45         NZD               Employment Change (QoQ)

21:45         NZD               Labor Cost Index (QoQ)

21:45         NZD               Unemployment Rate

23:50         JPY                Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes


Wednesday, November 6

00:30         AUD               Trade Balance

09:30         GBP               Industrial Production (MoM)

09:30         GBP               Industrial Production (YoY)

09:30         GBP               Manufacturing Production (MoM)

09:30         GBP               Manufacturing Production (YoY)

10:00         EUR               Retail Sales (MoM)

11:00         EUR               German Factory Orders (MoM)

13:30         CAD               Building Permits (MoM)

15:00         CAD               Ivey PMI

15:00         GBP               NIESR GDP Estimate



Thursday, November 7

00:30         AUD               Employment Change

00:30         AUD               Unemployment Rate

06:45         CHF               SECO Consumer Climate

09:50         EUR               Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction

11:00         BRL               Brazilian CPI (YoY)

11:00         EUR               German Industrial Production (MoM)

12:00         GBP               BoE QE Total

12:00         GBP               Interest Rate Decision

12:45         EUR               Interest Rate Decision

13:30         EUR               ECB Press Conference

13:30         USD               Continuing Jobless Claims

13:30         USD               GDP (QoQ)

13:30         USD               GDP Price Index (QoQ)

13:30         USD               Initial Jobless Claims

14:00         MXN              Mexican CPI (YoY)

18:50         USD               FOMC Member Stein Speaks

19:00         EUR               ECB President Draghi Speaks



Friday, November 8

00:30         AUD               RBA Monetary Policy Statement

02:00         CNY               Chinese Exports (YoY)

02:00         CNY               Chinese Trade Balance

06:45         CHF               Unemployment Rate n.s.a.

06:45         CHF               Unemployment Rate s.a.

08:15         CHF               Retail Sales (YoY)

09:30         GBP               Trade Balance

13:15         CAD               Housing Starts

13:30         CAD               Employment Change

13:30         CAD               Unemployment Rate

13:30         USD               Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)

13:30         USD               Average Weekly Hours

13:30         USD               Core PCE Price Index (MoM)

13:30         USD               Nonfarm Payrolls

13:30         USD               Personal Spending (MoM)

13:30         USD               Private Nonfarm Payrolls

13:30         USD               Unemployment Rate

14:55         USD               Michigan Consumer Sentiment

20:30         USD               Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks